Over the past several months, I've written a lot about current, particularly political, events
affecting our nation and wondering about their collective affect on the near future.
The Increasing Russian Threat
One recurring theme has been our relationship with Russia and Russian aggression. Russia is
nearly always a topic in these posts: Russia is actively supporting the Syrian government in
it's civil war; 1
Facebook was recently called to Washington to report on Russian intelligence services'
efforts to affect the outcome of the 2016 presidential election; 2
Russian cyberattack operations against other government and financial targets, the
presence of kompromat dossiers on Fmr. Sec of State Clinton and President Donald
Trump, and reporting that the Kremlin had provided intelligence and other assistance to Mr.
Trump since 2008;3
and a look at the FBI's investigation of the same.4
The US Second Fleet
Over this weekend, news emerged from the Department of the Navy and other media outlets
on the reactivation of the US Second Fleet, to address a growing Russian subsurface threat.
5
The Chief of Naval Operations (CNO) made the announcement on May 4, 2018, during a change of
command ceremony at the US Fleet Forces Command (USFF).6
"Our National Defense Strategy makes clear that we're back in an era of great power competition
as the security environment continues to grow more challenging and complex," said [CNO Adm.]
Richardson. "That's why today, we're standing up Second Fleet to address these changes,
particularly in the north Atlantic."
The Deputy Director of the Center for American Seapower at the Hudson Institute, Bryan McGrath,
told
The Washington Post:
One concern the 2nd Fleet will immediately address [is] the threat from a now-modest number of
Russian nuclear attack submarines capable of cruising in the depths off the East Coast.
The same reporting also said the Pentagon had proposed a NATO Joint Force Command, perhaps
colocated with the USFF.
Conclusion
Shit's getting real, y'all: The Department of Defense had stood down the 2nd Fleet in 2011
in favor of concentrating on operations in the Mediterranean and elsewhere, and, I believe,
because Russia no longer posed a relatively significant naval threat.
Secretary Matthis' recommendation to reinstate the 2nd Fleet must have been in response to
assessments from the military intelligence community and of the current political climate.
The factors I named above were likely just a few — and they were based on information
circulated in the media. Who knows what the balance of the indicators were.
Before you start watching your defense contractor stocks, I should caution you that the
reestablishment of 2nd Fleet appears mostly to be an administrivial exercise. When the
fleet was disestablished in 2011, its units were transferred to the
new USFF.7 In other words, the ships,
personnel, and support remained active — the checks were being written by someone else,
so to speak. Conversely, reestablishment of the fleet really means reopening the office
of the fleet commander, who, by the way, will report to USFF. So it's possible, maybe even
likely, the USFF will still be paying the bills, and all that has really happened was a
delegation of operational control.
Still, a delegation of operational control is a significant move, and could suggest
an expansion of the military budget for the coming fiscal year, six months away.