I was taken by complete surprise when news outlets were reporting an amazing turn
of events in North Korea relations, particularly with South Korea. It was clear
to me that something significant must have happened to cause North Korea to completely
reverse course diplomatically; I figured they got some kind of deal so favorable as
to coax them into forgetting its nuclear ambitions.
Then I came across this report from USA TODAY which could
explain everything:
A study by Chinese geologists shows the mountain above North Korea's main nuclear test
site has collapsed under the stress of the explosions, rendering it unsafe for further
testing and necessitating monitoring for any leaking radiation.
The article explained that the most recent nuclear device test in September, 2017 is
believed to have had a yield over five times greater than the bomb dropped on
Hiroshima in 1945, and ten times stronger than anything North Korea had previously tested.
The final detonoation is also believed to have caused a series of earthquakes that shook
the region in the weeks that followed, and actually reshaped the mountain above the test
facility.1
Personally, I don't care so much that a crippling blow to the DPRK's underground
testing facility is behind the diplomatic overtures between the Koreas as much as I
do that the Koreas are talking and cooperating on at least small things (think the
combined Korean olympic team at the 2018 Winter Olympics in PyeongChang).
April 29th reporting from The New York Times asserted Kim Jong-un would
abandon its nuclear program if the US would agree not to invade the DPRK, and would
also agree to formally end the Korean War. 2
Wait.. what? The Korean War never officially ended?
Public contributions to Wikipedia suggest that, although an armistice was established
in late July, 1953 (which created the demilitarized zone between the two Koreas),
no actual peace treaty had been signed.3
It's also worth noting that, not unlike Syria, there were more than just the Koreas
involved: pro-communist forces in North Korea were receiving assistance from the
Soviet Union and China, while forces in the south
received assistance from the United States.
Why would Kim specify that he wanted agreement that the US would never invade?
Kim Jong-un likely made this specification because the US was the primary supporter
of the Republic of Korea during the Korean War, and possibly because of his recent
exchange of insults with President Trump — the greatest of which also occurred in
September, 2017: 4
"The United States has great strength and patience, but if it is forced to defend itself or its allies, we will have no choice but to totally destroy North Korea. Rocket Man is on a suicide mission for himself and for his regime."
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— Mr. Trump, in his first address to the United Nations General Assembly |
"A frightened dog barks louder."
"He is unfit to hold the prerogative of supreme command of a country, and he is surely a rogue and a gangster fond of playing with fire, rather than a politician."
“Whatever Trump might have expected, he will face results beyond his expectation. I will surely and definitely tame the mentally deranged U.S. dotard with fire."
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— Mr. Kim, responding in a statement to President Trump’s threat |
Reporting from the BBC about an earthquake in North Korea on September 23, 2017
included references to Kim and Trump's exchanges.5 In fact, when compared with reporting
from The New York Times, it appears the earthquake happened the day after those
events as a matter of coincidence; the bomb test had occurred at the beginning of the month.
Ending the Korean War
North and South have both committed to formally declare the end of the Korean war by the
close of the year, according to reporting from The Independent. The leaders agreed
to cease hostilities and to pursue arms reduction, and to seek mulilateral talks with the
United States and other nations.6