Revealed this morning were the first US government criminal indictments
against actors in Special Council Robert Mueller III's probe into Russian
government interference in the 2016 US national elections.
The indictment of former Trump campaign chairman Mr. Paul Manafort and
business partner Mr. Rick Gates reads a lot like scenes at the end of
The Untouchables. The movie tells the story of how notorious
mobster Al Capone (pictured) was brought to trial by Elliot Ness and
his team of US Treasury agents, and was convicted of tax evasion charges
in 1931.
1
The Capone case was a landmark in the sense that the US government
could use a tool as comparatively lame as tax evastion to bust up a
multi-million dollar bootlegging, prostitution, and gambling enterprise
and bring to justice the principal player in the Chicago underworld.
Why Compare Manafort and Gates to Al Capone?
I compare Messrs. Manafort and Gates to Al Capone for two reasons.
Like the case against Capone, the federal government traced the
money: the indictment lays bare the men's work on behalf of a Ukrainian
pro-Russian political party, the tens of millions of dollars they made, and
the network of companies and accounts they used to launder the money.
2
And, like the case against Capone, Manafort and Gates failed to declare
these earnings as (taxable) income; ergo, income tax evasion became the
tool the US Government used to indict.
UPDATE: Jennifer Westhoven on CNN Headline News' "Morning Express
with Robin Meade" pointed out that the personal spending particularly
Manafort did was accomplished by wiring money directly from the overseas
accounts to US businesses. I suspect one might argue that, since the
money never actually went through Manafort in the US, he avoids
responsibility for personal income tax. This could be why the federal
government had to prove that Manafort (a US citizen) earned and hid the
money in the offshore accounts.
Building their Case
I suspect perhaps this indictment was made possible perhaps as a second
step, following the admission of a former Trump campaign adviser that
he'd lied to the FBI regarding connections to the government of Russia.
Court documents show the adviser, Mr. George Papadopoulos, "repeatedly
tried to arrange a meeting between the Trump campaign and Russian
government officials."
3
One assumes a relationship between the two actions in the context of the
Russia probe — perhaps simply establishing evidence that campaign advisors
had ties to the Russian government.
I imagine step one in the FBI's cases was showing that arrangements for
direct introductions were being made, and step two was perhaps showing that
the Trump campaign was hiring advisors with at least indirect ties to Russia.
UPDATE: Reporting from the Washington Post suggests another target
for the FBI could be Sam Clovis, a social conservative activist and former
radio personality who served as national co-chairman of the Trump campaign
and is currently awaiting Senate confirmation for a top position
in the USDA. Mr. Papadopoulos is known to have communicated with Clovis
regarding his infamous meeting in London in March, 2016.
4 The same
reporting suggests that Mr. Papadopoulos likely "wore a wire" for the
FBI in advance of getting a plea deal on October 5th, which could be cause
for great concern among those "in Trump's orbit."
It should surprise no one that the FBI would play the long game here,
leveraging Papadopoulos, Manafort and Gates to cultivate additional
actionable intelligence later. There's
much at stake, and the eyes of the world are watching.
Image credit: FBI